Sacramento State at Pacific Pick

Sacramento State at Pacific Pick and Prediction

Sacramento State at Pacific should turn the Pick of the Day out of its slump.

Sacramento State at Pacific is the Pick of the Day and this game stands out as an obvious play.  Damon Stoudamire’s crew takes on a hapless Sacramento State at the Spanos Center.

About Sacramento State

Sacramento State is a dreadful three point shooting team and they play the worst three point shooting defense in the country.  Forward Nick Hornsby is their best overall shooter on the floor, but he is very foul prone.

Sacramento State is not a strong ball movement team and they allow opponents to pass the ball at will.  They are no threat to force turnovers, but they also do not commit turnovers.

How does this Sacramento State team end possessions?  It is going to be off a defensive rebound and they are a weak rebounding team.  They are even weaker at getting second chance scoring opportunities, which means that they better get a good shot first or else it is going to likely be a one-and-out possession.

This is not a team that is strong at scoring inside the restricted arc, 54.4%.

They have yet to defeat a Division I team and have struggled mightily away from home.

About Pacific

Pacific is a terrible shooting team, but the reason behind their struggles may have something to do with their competition.  Their opponents are 25th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy.

Their defense has a high propensity to foul and put opponents at the line, but Pacific gets to the line a lot as well.  In fact, they are 25th in Free Throws Attempted.  They take a lot of Field Goals due to two factors:  Pace and Offensive Rebounding.

Pacific does not let opponents get steals, but they do get into positions to enable opponents to block shots.  Pacific does not turn the ball over much and they are an average team when it comes to forcing opponent turnovers.

Pacific gets plenty of second chance scoring opportunities, but they struggle in the restricted arc as they get their shots blocked frequently.  They have a 44% Field Goal percentage in the restricted arc and it is not a surprise that Nevada and UC-Irvine blocked so many of their shots.

Pacific lets opponents get out and run a bit, 24.3% of shots taken against them were in transition.  However, 41.7% of shots taken against them were from three point range suggesting that they do a good job of discouraging shots inside the perimeter.  In fact, Pacific only allows 28.5% of shots to be taken against them in the restricted arc, which is 55th in the country.

Sacramento State at Pacific Prediction and Picks

Sharp money is coming on the side of Pacific against Sacramento State.  Pacific has faced tougher competition than Sacramento State and now gets to host an opponent that is winless against Division I competition.  In fact, they have yet to cover the spread in their first five games, which is rather rough.  Sacramento State’s defense and inability to rebound will give Pacific plenty of opportunities to have a strong night.  Pacific should notch their first victory in which they actually shoot well from long range and their opponent does not!

Pacific will win this game and they are right now 10.5 point favorites.  Pacific will cover this figure against a hapless Sacramento State team who is completely overmatched and playing in a hostile environment.

Prediction:  Pacific 82  Sacramento State 61  (Pick:  Pacific -10.5)

Pick of the Day is 11-9 this season after TCU-Washington did not provide a repeat of their success in breaking the over from a few nights prior.  Pick of the Day is on a 3 game skid, but yet last night this happened…

Yes, that’s a 4-way Parlay… the Moneyline was a wimpy play for Eastern Michigan.

Also covered with Saint Mary’s in the nightcap.  Jock Landale and Calvin Hermanson played very well last night.

It is possible that Pick of the Day has been a bit half-baked lately.