Season Preview

Analytical Projections of Georgia Basketball in 2019-20: Bart Torvik

What are sports data analytics sites and commentators projecting for Georgia in the 2019-20 Season?

Some sports data analytics sites have posted their projections with regard to records, expected efficiency figures, and individual metrics.  This is an opportunity to explore what they have to say before The gBb releases its Season Prospectus and preseason bracketology.  In this edition, Bart Torvik‘s projected analytics are the topic de jour.

Bart Torvik

Bart Torvik has projected Georgia to be a 17-12 team this season (they did not include the last two games in Maui as part of the projections) and 9-9 in conference play.  This means that Georgia would be 8-3 (excluding two extra unknown results from non-conference play) in non-conference play.

The projections are basically what anyone would think if judging Georgia from a perspective that is in between Sell and Hold.  Georgia is not expected to win 50/50 games or perform well on the road.  How bearish is the expectation?  Georgia is even expected to have their second biggest loss by margin at Missouri.  With the bearishness comes the expectation that Georgia would win at Colonial Life Arena and Memorial Gymnasium in back-to-back games.  The Dawgs are also expected to win home games against Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee.

Georgia is expected to lose 6 of 8 games in the month of January and 7 of 9 games in February.  Georgia is only expected to win two road games the entire season and they would be against teams that are projected to deliver a Quadrant II and Quadrant III victory in a narrow fashion.  The conference opener at Stegeman Coliseum and Senior Night are expected to deliver the Dawgs their only two home losses of the season.

The highest quality win of the season is expected to be a home victory over Alabama.  The highest quality non-conference win is expected to be a narrow home victory over Georgia Tech.

Georgia’s expected to have a Top Decile offense while having an above-average defense.  The packed Stegeman Coliseum will be excited by the fast pace of 73.1 possessions per game.

Teams with a similar efficiency profile generally made the NCAA Tournament, but only one of these teams with a similar profile was in the NCAA Tournament field in the previous three seasons.  It is a recipe for tournament entry during the early 2010s, not the latter 2010s based on the projections made.

Based on projected final ranks, the projection is far more pessimistic.

Teams with the projected resume and end of season metrics that Georgia would have generally did not make the NCAA Tournament.

Who is expected to perform?

Anthony Edwards, Tyree Crump, and Rayshaun Hammonds are expected to carry this team.  The projected leading distributors are Edwards and Crump with the lion’s share of the minutes expected to go the core five of Edwards, Crump, Hammonds, Gresham, and Harris.  Christian Brown and Jaykwon Walton are expected to be first players to come off the bench to contribute.  Toumani Camara and Sahvir Wheeler are projected to play rather sparingly.

Based on Georgia’s projected BARTHAG Score, this team is going to be considered a bubble team and is more likely NIT bound than having a shot at that One Shining Moment.

Projected SEC rankings

If this projection holds up, the SEC is likely going to be 6 bid conference with Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M all going to the NCAA Tournament.  Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt would all be playing on Wednesday Night in Nashville.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *