Season Preview

Team Rankings’ Analytical Projections of Georgia Basketball in 2019-20

What is Team Rankings projecting for Georgia in the 2019-20 Season?

Some sports data analytics sites have posted their projections with regard to records, expected efficiency figures, and individual metrics.  This is an opportunity to explore what they have to say before The gBb releases its Season Prospectus and preseason bracketology.  In this edition, Team Rankings‘ projected analytics are the topic de jour.

Team Rankings

Expectations from Team Rankings are when compared to Bart Torvik’s projections rather bearish for the 2019-20 Season.  This is a slightly negative skewed distribution of projected regular season records.  The consolidation in term of Georgia’s record ranges from 13-16 to 18-11 (once again, the other two games in Maui are not forecasted).

The most likely record based on the distribution above is 15-14, which indicates that this season is not going to have a postseason.

Team Rankings gives their forecasts wiggle room by operating with a win-loss projection that uses floating numbers rather than integers, which is how wins and losses are allocated.  Nobody can win half a game, but Team Rankings has done it anyway.  Behold the horror that is a 15.5 win season and 7.3 wins in SEC play.

It all boils down to 15-14 in the regular season and 7-11 in conference play.  8 non-conference wins basically means that Georgia drops the games at Memphis and Arizona State while also losing their opening game in Maui against Dayton.  In conference play, this means that Georgia probably wins 6 or 7 games at Stegeman Coliseum and either wins one (at Vanderbilt) or no games on the road.  Team Rankings projects that Georgia will be playing on Wednesday Night in Nashville as the #11 seed to face the hometown Vanderbilt Commodores.

The SEC appears to be a 6 bid conference for the NCAA Tournament with Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida, and Texas A&M being the projected bid-takers.  Georgia is projected in the Future Odds section of the forecast as a 9.3 seed, which is a bit off from being ranked 11th when sorted in the full standings.  Georgia has a 14.9% probability of making the SEC Tournament semifinals and a 5.7% probability of playing a game that would earn them an automatic bid.

Georgia is projected to lose their first five conference games, which would probably discourage a lot of the faithful about the hopes for the rest of the season just in time for the later and more traditional National Signing Day for Football.

Even though Georgia has a 96.8% probability of defeating Western Carolina on opening night, the Dawgs are a not-so-confident pick to win the game according to their betting model.

2 out of 5 stars is not exactly a vote of confidence.

If you were ready to jump off a ledge from the pessimism and the maddening inconsistencies, there’s a glimmer of hope.

Team Rankings decided to publish inaccurate projections and data before November 1 rather than just be dormant and promote the accurate data to come out on a specified date for their most important sport of the year as far as revenue, College Basketball.  It is better to hype for a particular date, provide quality consistency, and then deliver on those expectations than go down this route.

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